Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Growth and Nutrient Dynamics using the CERES-Rice Model

抄録

Rice grain yields are highly variable because of year to year climatic fluctuations. Long-term climatic data from two sites in the Philippines were used to quantify yield variability as predicted by the CERES-Rice model. Temperature scenarios depicting 0-5.5°C increases were superimposed on the long-term historical data. With increased temperature the model predicted a sharp decline in yield. However, much of the yield decline was offset by the use of a high temperature-tolerant variety. The rice grain yields were markedly higher and the water-use efficiency improved at a CO₂ concentration of 540ppm. Positive effects of climatic change were most pronounced with the improved rice variety and the high nitrogen management.