Abstract
For estimating the energy consumption of a city that consists of numerous different sizes and types of building, it is necessary to estimate the distribution of the energy consumption of buildings in the urban area. The objective of this study is to estimate the household number and household composition of 22 patterns of household life cycle matrix using the co-hort factor method based on the population and regional econometric models. The case study was done for Toyohashi city, Japan. The energy consumption in the residential area was expected to be decreased for 50 years due to the decrease of population and high efficient energy supply system. The estimated household number was determined by the regional econometric model. The population would have decreased by approximately 20% compared with the present population in the central area around Toyohashi station and the population in suburb area would have slightly increased by 1.2%. The total energy consumption of the energy efficient house was expected to be decreased by 17.5% compared with the present level.
