FUTURE PROJECTION OF HEAT STROKE AND SLEEP DISTURBANCE FOR 2070'S AUGUST IN TOKYO, NAGOYA, AND OSAKA

Dynamical downscale experiments from multiple CMIP3-GCMs and health impact assessment by mid-point type methodology

Abstract

This study projects future climate in Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka in summer under the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1b scenario by the dynamical downscaling method with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. Furthermore, impacts of climate change on human health are evaluated by the mid-point impact assessment based on contingent valuation method. The results show that the frequency of days with daytime maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will be doubled in the 2070s in the three metropolises. Willingness to pay (WTP) in order to avoid heat stress is the highest in Osaka, followed by Nagoya and Tokyo. WTP is higher for sleep disturbance compared to heat stroke.