Abstract
Number of ignition that occurred outside of the tsunami-inundated areas following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake was analyzed using statistical models. For the analysis, the number of ignition, seismic data, and areal characteristics were surveyed for 698 municipalities in 17 prefectures of eastern Japan. The data set includes 191 earthquake-generated ignitions occurred within one month after the main shock. Regression analysis using Kawasumi model showed that there was no clear difference in the ignition probability between 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Further analysis using GLM (Generalized Linear Model) showed that the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity, acceleration response with the period of 1.0s, and SI (Spectral Intensity) are the most appropriate explanatory parameters for evaluating the number of ignitions in each municipality. The proposed model could be used to predict the number of ignitions for future earthquakes.
