THE ESTIMATION APPROACH OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY EACH MUNICIPALITY IN JAPAN

— The statistical study of regional household environmental roads Part 1 —

Abstract

This study proposed two statistical methods for estimating household energy consumption by each municipality in Japan. The first one was the methodology of creating final energy consumption models, unified statistical models F, and for local statistical models, restricted statistical models G, and there application method for each municipality in Japan. This study defined the P_i that is a coefficient of difference between places, and introduced some spatial statistical concepts for reflecting the regional characteristics and to improve precision. Finally, we estimated household energy consumptions by each municipality and described them by a GIS map separately for 3,319 locations in Japan. This study proposed a useful methodology of estimating household energy consumption by each municipality in Japan. However this method needs work for applying to remote islands. The second one is the methodology of the integrated use of similar studies and improves the precision of the estimated result. The method is a kind of asymptotic convergence method by applying Bayes Statistics. We applied this method to Kumamoto city and Minamata city, and showed the results. This has resulted in the realization of efficient integration of the findings of numerous studies.