Abstract
Formulae for estimating the probability of an aircraft crash into an important facility are discussed. Four formulae introduced in the references are reviewed and are used to estimate the probability of an aircraft crash based on four flying patterns, namely, "Landing on and/or taking off from an airport", "Near airport", "Straight flight path" and "Racetrack pattern flight". For "Racetrack pattern flight", a new crash site distribution function is introduced and sensitivity analysis of crash site distribution functions is conducted. Finally, a formula for estimating the crash probability for a "Free flight zone" is newly proposed and a sensitivity analysis is also conducted. All formulae are accompanied by numerical examples idealized to flying conditions.
