PROBABILISTIC LOAD MODELS BY ORDER STATISTICS OF LOAD INTENSITY : Load models for use in ultimate and serviceability limit states design [I]

Abstract

This paper presents a method to determine load models for use in limit state design based on basic variates (annual load intensity) and ranked variates (order statistics of the annual load intensity). Two classes of load models with different level of intensity and occurrence rate are proposed for use in ultimate limit state design and serviceability limit state design. The statistical characteristics of the load models and the application of the models to the evaluation of ultimate limit state probability and serviceability limit state probability are discussed using numerical examples with 1)the proposed load models and 2)50 year maximum load model.