Abstract
Appropriate modeling of seismic load intensity is one of the critical factors for the reliability assessment of a structure. Using active fault data and attenuation formula, this paper presents an analytical method to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) of n-year maximum value of ground motions and response spectra at a site efficiently considering various kinds of uncertainties including magnitude of earthquakes, recurrence periods, and accuracy of attenuation formula. Numerical examples show that the cdf of the n-year maximum value is different from site to site. The sensitivity of the cdf to the uncertainties to the probabilistic models is also investigated.
