SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS BASED ON FAULT RUPTURE SCENARIOS AND THEIR OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY : For implementation of strong ground motions predicted by fault models in performance-based design of structures

Abstract

Prediction technique of strong ground motions has been intensively developed in Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu earthquake (M_J 7.3), and it has been applied to the practical prediction for inland earthquakes and plate-boundary earthquakes by Japanese Government. On the other hand, recent earthquakes of the 2001 Geiyo earthquake (M_J 6.4) and the 2004 Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake (M_J 6.8) arose not only requirements of safety of lives and structural elements but also requirements of function of equipments and industrial lines. These requirements are well realized in the performance-based design of structures. Hence, we proposed a method of seismic hazard analysis based on fault rupture scenarios and their occurrence probability for implementation of strong ground motions predicted by fault models in performance-based design of structures.