THE FORECASTING MODEL OF CO₂ EMISSIONS UP TO 2050 FOR RESIDENTIAL SECTOR OF TAIWAN

Abstract

In the past two decades, CO₂ emissions in Taiwan have sharply increased, but models for forecasting the future trend are still insufficient. In this study, based on the energy consumption of residential sector from 1990 to 2010, CO₂ emissions were estimated up to 2050 using the macro simulation method. The model presents the final energy consumption and CO₂ emissions by category of fuels and final usages. Several scenarios were applied to examine the possibility of achieving the goal set by the government; the most effective result shows 27% reduction by 2020 and 64% reduction of CO₂ emissions by 2050.