PROBABILITY OF COLLISION WITH BUILDINGS DUE TO VEHICLE AND TRAIN ACCIDENTS

Abstract

This study presents a method for calculating the probabilities of collisions between vehicles or trains with buildings, by multiplying two probabilities: accident occurrence and subsequent reach to buildings. Data for accident occurrence probabilities were sourced from domestic public databases, and the estimated values were found to be comparable to those in ISO 10252. The reach probabilities were calculated using ISO 10252’s mathematical model, applied through Monte-Carlo simulations. The paper also provides an example of the calculation of collision probability, which combines the expected value of the occurrence rate of accident with the integration of the reach probability along the path.