Abstract
Results of the 2010 Agriculture Census of Japan show signs of the recultivation of marginal farmland, but reconfirm the structural deterioration of agriculture in Japan. With the return of the Abe administration, again pushing to weaken the yen and partake in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, international competition for farmers is about to worsen. Forging strong and resilient agriculture under these circumstances requires the strategic prioritization of efficient measures to meet the future needs of Japan. This study was conducted on the understanding that policies need to account for regional characteristics of agricultural areas. It reveals, by region, factors responsible for farm exit that in turn affect the structure of agriculture. Results of the 2005 and 2010 censuses were linked, yielding data on 206 characteristics (variables) of 1.9 million farm households (cases). The dataset was statistically analyzed to identify factors associated with farm exit. In many regions, the factors that emerged were those typically associated with exit, such as old age, absence of successors, and small scale of operation. However, other factors, such as farm management style and attitude toward participation in shared-use organizations, also affected farm exit in varying ways depending on the region. This discovery of regionally unique farm exit factors will contribute basic support for future policy design. This study makes a further contribution in its analytical methodology. Errors that occur in the process of estimating measurement models of large datasets were investigated, and countermeasures such as the formulation of subsamples were devised. Empirical findings on this innovative methodology for the quantitative analysis of individual censuses expand the academic knowledge base on agricultural informatics and will further the development of this field.
