抄録
This paper provide hybrid modeling of economics and engineering approaches and tests the hypothesis that technological change has offset resource depletion for offshore oil and gas production using a unique micro-level data set from 1947-2000. The study supports the hypothesis that technological progress has mitigated depletion effects for our case study, but the pattern differs from the conventional wisdom for non-renewable resource industries. Contrary to the usual assumptions of monotonic changes in productivity or an inverted “U” shaped pattern, we found that productivity declined for the first 30 years of our study period. But more recently, the rapid pace of technological change has outpaced depletion and productivity has increased rapidly, particularly in most recent 5 years of our study period. We also provide a more thorough understanding of different components of technological change and depletion. Sound energy and environmental policies require reliable forecasts of production and pollution, as well as supply response to policy actions. In this study, we describe a model for forecasting long-term production and pollution in the offshore oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico under different scenarios. A model based on disaggregated field-level data is used to forecast production and pollution through the year 2050. The time path for resource depletion is determined as the net effect of technological progress and depletion under alternative scenarios for new discoveries. We also quantify potential efficiencies that could result from changing the design of regulations from the current command-and-control regime, to an approach that allows more flexible means of achieving the same environmental goals.
