Abstract
The Japanese pork market was liberalized in 1971, and the circularity of the pig-cycle began to modulate gradually from the beginning of the 80s. In this paper, I have used certain methods-like the X-12-ARIMA program of Census method for seasonal adjustment, power spectrum for periodic analysis, and multiple regression analysis for revealing the relation between variables-to analyze the cause of the pig-cycle modulation. The results of my analysis are as such: Firstly, the periodic analysis found that the wholesale price cycle of the pork dressed carcasses was 62 months, longer than the conventional wholesale price cycle of 3–4 years. Secondly, it was found that one cause of the pig-cycle modulation was the fact that in a large-scale management, it is difficult to change the management scale in accordance with the fluctuation in the market price. Thirdly, the compound feed prices were found to affect the pig-cycle. It was observed that the wholesale price of pork dressed carcasses goes up through a time lag due to the rise in the compound feed price.
