ポスト冷戦期におけるインド国内政治と対パキスタン外交

抄録

This study aims to explain the cycle of conflict escalation and tension reduction between India and Pakistan during the post-Cold War period. India and Pakistan have reiterated military conflict and diplomatic dialogue since their independence. They have fought three wars against each other and now have the highest risk of nuclear war worldwide. In the post-Cold War period, India and Pakistan have often threatened nuclear war, with incidents including the India-Pakistan nuclear armament in May 1998, the Kargil conflict from May to July 1999, and a military standoff from December 2001 to May 2002. Conflict escalation between the two countries has been explained from two standpoints. First, studies focusing on the structural factors of international politics have explained that the end of the Cold War fostered conflicts between India and Pakistan. Second, studies focusing on the internal political factors affecting India and Pakistan showed that the instability of Pakistan’s democratic institutions and the rise of extreme religious ideologies in both countries facilitated the conflicts. However, such factors are insufficient to explain the cycle of conflict escalation and tension reduction between India and Pakistan during the post-Cold War period.

First, this paper discusses how the ideology of the Indian regime affects the India-Pakistan relationship. Second, the degree of stability of the ruling coalition in the Indian parliament influences the cycle of conflict and tension reduction between India and Pakistan. Thus, this paper reveals the dynamics of conflict escalation and tension reduction between India and Pakistan.