Avalanche hazard mapping in Langtang, Nepal

Abstract

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal triggered a large avalanche in Langtang, covering the village with avalanche debris and causing severe damage. The analysis of this disaster was conducted using an avalanche dynamics simulation, which estimated the potential hazards to the village. Avalanche dynamics simulations were performed using the TITAN2D model to obtain the appropriate input parameters for largescale avalanche flows. Using these input parameters, we calculated the avalanche flows for various initial volumes to obtain a lower bound for the potential hazard to Langtang Village. Based on the lower bound, it was estimated that both earthquake-induced and ice avalanches could threaten villages in the future. We also attempted to create a hazard map to estimate the areas around Langtang village where avalanches may have occurred. Using the Polynomial Chaos Quadrature, we were able to account for the uncertainties in the input parameters at a low computational cost.