Prediction of Competitive Microbial Growth

Abstract

　Prediction of competitive microbial growth is becoming important for microbial food safety. There would be two approaches to predict competitive microbial growth with mathematical models. The first approach is the development of a growth model for competitive microbes. Among several candidates for the competition model considered, the combination of the primary growth model of the new logistic (NL) model and the competition model of the Lotka-Vorttera (LV) model showed the best performance in predicting microbial competitive growth in the mixed culture of two species. This system further successfully predicted the growth of three competitive species in mixed culture. The second approach is the application of the secondary model especially for the parameter of the maximum cell population in the primary growth model. The combination of the NL model and a polynomial model for the maximum population successfully predicted Salmonella growth in raw ground beef. This system further successfully predicted Salmonella growth in beef at various initial concentrations and temperatures. The first approach requires microbial growth data in monoculture for analysis. The second approach to the prediction of competitive growth from the viewpoint of microbial food safety would be more suitable for practical application.