Risk Analysis on Acquisition of CO₂ Emission Credits from CDM Projects

Abstract

In this paper, we quantified 'CER short risk' of CDM projects using project approval data published by UNFCCC.We drew a frequency distribustion chart of 'CER approval ratio' for each type of projects, and found that different types of projects have different averages and variances of 'CER approval ratio'.Additionally, we estimated the amonts of CER issued until 2012, using " Bayesian model " which reflects already realized amounts of CER as well as the distribution of 'CER realization ratio' for each individual CDM project.