抄録
The purpose of this paper is to outline the trend in recent years of real estate prices in major cities in China. based on data that has been made public. and to examine the factor of the fluctuation. The main findings as follows:
First, it is important to know that changes in real estate prices in China vary to a large degree in different regions. It appears that multiple waves of changes surge alternately in different regions.
Second., we studied the reasons for price changes on the assumption that real estate prices are affected by a combination of multiple factors. In terms of the demand side， the actual demand is steady. At present,
investments in stocks and investment trusts are reviving and thus there are not circumstances where investments concentrate only on real estate. In terms of the supply side， the amount of land disposal in city areas has tended to decrease since 2005, indicating that the developer was delaying the land development on purpose.
Third, so far, the central government has tried to suppress rapid hikes in real estate prices by throwing a wet blanket on investing when investments in real estate start to overheat in some areas. If its medium-to-long term policies (such as supplying medium to low income housing, guaranteed housing and taxing idle land) are implemented properly as planned by the central government, any mismatch in supply and demand would be improved and contribute to stabilized real estate prices. However, there are many systemic and structural problems including， the tax system, local government finances associated with the disposal of land, and excessive liquidity. The prospects for solutions to these problems are still far from certain. It is a serious question whether the central government can control local governments, or not. It seems to be important for China to
solve such fundamental problems in the medium and long term range, in order to establish a stable
real estate market.
