北海道における積雪状況と春先の圃場乾湿の将来予測

抄録

　In order to estimate the field moisture in early spring in Hokkaido, in response to global environmental changes, a simplified snow cover model that calculates daily snow water content from daily mean temperature and daily precipitation was developed and applied to the future climate projection dataset on The Agro-Meteorological Grid Square Data, NARO. The last day of the long-term snow cover period is not significantly different from the present climate at many locations in the RCP 2.6 scenario throughout the 21st century, but the RCP 8.5 scenario shows a significant advance in the latter half of the 21st century. The RCP 8.5 scenario projection for liquid water, which is a combination of snowmelt and rainfall, shows an increase in February and March and a decrease in April from the middle to the latter half of the 21st century. Especially for February, the snow cover is dry almost all over Hokkaido under the current climate, but the western coast is projected to become a wet snow area by the end of the 21st century. The snowmelt intensity at the end of the snowmelt season tends to increase compared to the present climate until the middle of the 21st century, suggesting an increased risk of snowmelt floods and other hazards.