Host: The Japanese Society for Cognitive Psychology
This study examines the mental operations acquired by students to quantify probability in modes of reasoning in two types of Bayesian problems: the Bayesian drawing-of-lots problem (Itoh, 2008) and the Bayesian medical diagnosis problem. The distinction between competence factors and performance factors is needed to analyze reasoning (Itoh, 2008). Competence factors are mental operations essential to quantify probability. Performance factors, such as the contents of problems, influence the functioning of operations. In this study, junior high school students and university students answered the two problems. The content of the former problem is so simple that the influence of the students' competence factors on results can be examined exclusively. The content of the latter is so well contextualized that the results are considered to be influenced by both factors. According to the results, the modes of reasoning in both problems can be explained in terms of the level of acquired operations.
