The effect of a tendency to jump to conclusions on causal illusion and prior belief

Abstract

Previous research has shown that individuals high in Jump to Conclusion (JtC) tendencies, who make decisions based on limited evidence, are more prone to causal illusions in contingency learning tasks. This study examined the relationship between JtC tendencies and causal illusions by testing three hypotheses: (1) individuals with high JtC tendencies are more likely to make prior causal predictions between events before learning, (2) higher JtC tendencies are associated with greater confidence in these prior predictions and causal judgments, and (3) JtC tendencies, prior causal predictions, and confidence in judgments influence the strength of causal illusions. Results showed that JtC tendencies did not correlate with the strength of causal predictions or confidence in judgments. However, those with high JtC tendencies who made strong prior causal predictions experienced more significant causal illusions. This suggests that individuals with high JtC tendencies may find it difficult to update their prior beliefs based on evidence, implying that the difficulty in updating beliefs may contribute to the occurrence of causal illusions.