Host: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
Pages 123
Forecasting demand by taking into considerations the present international air cargo market and its possible change in the future trend will assist in the construction for civil aviation policy and the planning of international airports. When forecasting air cargo volumes, due to the fact that uncertainty factors often cause deviation in estimations derived from traditional linear regression analysis, fuzzy regression analysis has been adopted to amalgamate with linear regression analysis, for reducing the residual resulted from uncertain factors. In this study, relative researches were presented to indicate the factors influencing export air cargo volume. Stepwise regression was implemented to find out key variable factors that had major impact on Taiwan air cargo export and import volume. In addition, fuzzy regression analysis and volatility concept were applied to accurately forecast the demand for Taiwan air cargo volumes under present scenario.
