Future Scenario of International Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method

Abstract

For a discussion on a future vision of international transport infrastructure and forecast on future trade and cargo demand, predicted figures for variables in socio-economics and infrastructure should be given as prerequisites. They will be simply estimated by extrapolation of past trends or based somewhat on econometric methodology. However, these figures may be very uncertain and difficult to estimate, especially in long-term forecasting with large changes over time. In this paper, following Yoshida et al. (2009a) discussing on future scenario of international economics, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the international transport field targeting many experts based on the Delphi method which seeks to consolidate expert opinions by repeating questions to the same respondents. The most probable future scenario for international transport in East Asia was summarized in order to contribute to the discussion on the direction they will take in the future and how they ought to be.