Upgrading from motorbikes to cars: Simulation of current and future traffic conditions in Ho Chi Minh City

抄録

This paper uses simulation models to demonstrate the traffic conditions in Ho Chi Minh City under different scenarios of levels of car and bus use. To predict the negative impacts of shifting from motorcycle to car use which is likely to occur in the future, 4 scenarios, i.e. 10%, 20%, 40%, 60% car use, were simulated. The results show that if 30-40% of motorcycle users shift to use car, traffic conditions would significantly worsen. Further analysis indicates that behavior change of private mode users to become bus users would have large effects on maintaining acceptable travel speeds. Based on these results, the study suggests that managing travel demand, i.e. restraining car use, and promoting bus usage is crucial to ensure the mobility of the city.