抄録
Recently evaluation of travel time reliability has become great concern in transportation planning. Many studies have analyzed travel time reliability so far and most of them focused on the reliability concerning road transports. Therefore, the reliability of railway service was analyzed in this study. It is thought that railway users recognize variability of travel time and decide their departure time in consideration of necessary spare time. Therefore, departure time decision of railway users in Tokyo metropolitan area was investigated in this study. Internet survey was conducted to prepare the data for analysis. Several factors which affect the length of spare time were extracted through the basic analysis. Regression model which can estimate the length of spare time was build. Model parameters were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, it is shown that consideration of user's heterogeneity concerning distribution of spare time is effective for the analysis.
