Estimating Tourism Demands and Substitution Effect using the Kuhn Tucker Model: An Application in Nara Prefecture

抄録

In tourism demand analysis, the random utility model has been used to estimate the data that includes tourists? site selection process. Recently, the Kuhn Tucker model (KTM), which is more consistent with the utility maximization problem, has been developed. In this study, the attributes of demand analysis using KTM are examined through comparison with the repeated discrete choice model. The trip data for eight sites in Nara Prefecture in Japan were used. As a result, the demands calculated using KTM are (1) consistent with the observed data, (2) larger than those calculated by the repeated discrete choice model. Finally, the magnitudes of the substitution effects are examined. It is concluded that Nara area has the largest substitution effect among all sites.