CO₂ Emissions Evaluation Considering Introduction of EVs and PVs under Land-use Scenarios for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

– Focusing on the Change of Emission Factor after the Tohoku Earthquake –

Abstract

After the Tohoku Earthquake, the concept of urban resilience has been discussed widely in Japan. Resilient cities cannot be realized without considering energy and natural disaster risks. In this paper several land-use scenarios are used for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area in 2050 using a land-use model considering these two aspects. These scenarios consider the co-benefits of [i] change of urban form (compact city), [ii] adaptation to flooding risks, and [iii] diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) and solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. Also, in this paper the effects of emission factor change on direct/indirect CO₂ emissions due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the earthquake are analyzed. The results suggest that the diffusion of PVs is more important in the non-nuclear world to reduce CO₂ emissions, and that EVs still can contribute to CO₂ emission reduction despite changes in emission factor. Also, compact urban form can effectively reduce CO₂ emissions.