Influence of Urban Railway Development Timing on Long-term Car Ownership Growth in Asian Developing Mega-cities

Abstract

The rapid growth of car use in Asian developing countries causes a variety of problems, such as traffic congestion and increasing environmental damage. The delay of railway introduction is one of the factors for the progress of motorization in each city. This study quantitatively examined the impact on motorization of early urban railway development in Asian developing mega-cities. The impact is modeled using data of metropolises in Japan, China and Thailand. By applying the model to scenarios on railway development in mega-cities of Asian developing countries, the impact of railway development timing is revealed.