Evaluation Method of Regional Economic Impact of High-speed Railway Development Considering Effects on Tourism Demand

Abstract

In this paper, a regional econometric model that enables to analyze the time-series impacts of the increase in the number of tourists from inside and outside the regions on the regional economy resulting from the construction of a high-speed railway such as the Shinkansen is developed. As a result of an empirical analysis with the model for the Hokkaido Shinkansen whose completion is planned in 2030, it is indicated that, although the Hokkaido Shinkansen would annually generate about 570 thousand more tourists from inside or outside Hokkaido, the economic effects after its completion (stock effects) are expected to be relatively smaller than the flow effects during its construction period.