How has the frequency distribution of domestic overnight leisure travel changed in the past few decades? What will the distribution be in the next several decades? In order to answer these questions, this paper analyzes the time series change of travel frequency distribution for the Japanese. We conclude that (1) the average annual travel frequency decreased for 20 years, (2) the zero frequency ratio is increasing, the difference of travel frequency between individuals is also increasing, and (3) these time series changes can be explained by the changes in age composition and differences among birth cohort. Moreover, we forecast the travel frequency distribution until 2060, considering changes in age composition. The results indicates that: (4) by 2060, the total overnight travel volume will decrease to half of that in 2010, (5) the difference between individuals will continue to increase, as a result zero frequency ratio will be 65% by 2060.
2015 Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies