Rare Mode Choice in Freight Transport: Modal Shift from Road to Rail

Abstract

Promoting more environmentally friendly modes, such as rail, has been a popular topic globally for decades. However, despite several attempts to promote a modal shift to rail, the Japan Freight Railway Company has run a deficit for many years. In the absence of effective policies an increase in the usage of rail freight is unlikely as the country has experienced a long economic recession and the population is declining. A modal choice model was constructed in order to analyze measures to revive domestic rail freight for shipments from the Chukyo Metropolitan Area. Rail is so rarely chosen in Japan that a general discrete choice model can't accurately estimate this tiny fraction. Hence, in this study we employ a method to increase the accuracy of predictions of a rare mode choice, such as rail freight in this study, and apply the model to evaluate some measures to encourage a modal shift from truck to rail.