Benchmarking Urban Transport Oil Vulnerability in 11 Asia-Pacific Cities

Abstract

Oil vulnerability emerged as a transport policy concern during the period of higher oil prices circa 2003 to 2014. This paper assesses and compares 11 Asian Pacific cities of different size regarding their level of oil vulnerability. A scorecard ranking method is developed, building from more established vulnerability concepts of 'exposure', 'sensitivity' and 'adaptive capacity' based on census data, transport agency datasets and previous international studies. The results show city-states such as Hong Kong and Singapore are the least vulnerable despite their complete reliance on imported oil. Conversely, South-East Asia's growing megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok and Manila, with increasing motorisation, insufficient public transport supply and lower income levels are likely to be the hardest hit in the event of any oil supply shortfall. Implications of this research include that cities aspiring to be oil-free must curb private motorisation and devote their resources towards public transport.