Determinants of Intention to Shift to a New High Quality Bus Service: A Mixed Logit Model Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Abstract

This paper discusses the determinants of the intention to shift to a new high-quality Locally Adapted, Modified, and Advanced Transport (LAMAT) bus service in Ho Chi Minh City using a stated preference (SP) survey. Mixed logit models (MXL) are used to estimate the mode choice between motorcycles (MCs) and LAMAT in the SP choices. The use of a panel-MXL is shown to significantly improve the estimation results compared with the standard multinomial logit model. Accordingly, heterogeneity in the LAMAT choice is largely explained by citizens’ unobserved characteristics, whereas their preference for time and money might be homogenous. Additionally, four mode-specific factors, i.e., provision of information, air conditioning, seat availability (LAMAT), and the risk of traffic accidents (MCs) are found to be significant determinants of the intention to use the LAMAT bus service.