Abstract
The suitability of the model for short-notice bus-based evacuation under dynamic demand conditions (SBED) for simulating earlier local floods and associated evacuation planning has been investigated. Evacuation planning of Kawajima Town is used as a case study, with selected pickup points becoming gradually unavailable after the passage of certain periods of time. The SBED model is found to maximize the number of evacuees, regardless of the flooding pattern of the pickup points, as long as the number of buses is insufficient for complete removal of all evacuees at all pickup points. However, when the number of buses becomes sufficient for complete evacuation, the priority order for evacuating the pickup points is found to be exactly the same as that of gradual flooding. Furthermore, a scenario that takes account of the effect of congestion on travel times has also been analyzed. It is found that a doubling of the normal value of travel times due to congestion results in 30% fewer people being evacuated by the same number of buses. This emphasizes the need to avoid congestion delays during evacuation operations.
