Prediction of Remaining Service Life of Flexible Pavement Based on Patterson Method in Manado-Bitung Highway of Indonesia

Abstract

Planning for road programs in Indonesia uses a functional pavement index, in this case, the International Roughness Index (IRI). This paper presents the concept of Remaining Services Life (RSL) as a decision-making tool in programming. RSL is defined as the number of years under the traffic load where the pavement is still in in-service. By predicting the RSL, the pavement maintenance time can be measured before the failure conditions begin. The Patterson method based on the HDM III model is used to determine RSL. This method is used by considering the availability of data in Indonesia and the ease of application to be implemented immediately. The Patterson method can be used despite data limitations and combined with historical road performance data to produce better predictions. The results show that the Patterson method can be used to accurately predict future IRI values. However, calibration is required for long-term use.