A Method for Evaluating the Future Flood Risk for Railway Networks under Climate Change

Abstract

Recent concern has grown over the escalating frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change, with significant impacts on railways. This study evaluates the current and future flood risk of Japanese railroads, employing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Findings suggest a slight increase in flood risk by the end of the twenty-first century in a sustainable scenario and a substantial increase in a fossil fuel-dependent scenario compared to the end of the twentieth century. These results emphasize the need for proactive measures to mitigate flood damage and enhance railway resilience in Japan's transportation network amid climate change.