An Explorative Analysis on the Occurrence of Braess's Paradox

Abstract

This study conducts a simulation analysis to explore conditions in which Braess's Paradox occurs. Specifically, we hypothesize that Braess's Paradox depends on the road network structure and travel demand patterns. To confirm these hypotheses, we develop a three-step method: (1) generate various virtual road networks and travel demand patterns, (2) calculate user equilibrium assignments under both conditions before/after removing some road links for the generated road network and travel demand to obtain total travel time at the equilibrium state and confirm the occurrence of Braess's Paradox, and (3) develop a surrogate model with decision tree using the generated data obtained in step (2), where the objective variable is occurrence of Braess's Paradox and explanatory variables are indices related to road network and travel demand patterns. The results show that travel demand does not affect the occurrence of Braess's Paradox, while the network structure has a significant influence on it.