MODELING UNCERTAINTY IN MIXED TRAFFIC NETWORK

Abstract

As the actual condition of road network exhibits different combination of traffic modes in the light of normal day-to-day variation, the network travel time is subject to uncertainty and variability. The model proposed in this paper suggests an approach to investigate the effect of variation of mixed traffic on travel time and its uncertainty by using an analytic method. Based on this method, the first and second order moments of link travel time can be evaluated while we capture the fluctuation of traffic flow by each mode. An illustrative numerical example is reported on a simple network from which some useful observations are presented providing us an insight into how fluctuation of demand, vehicle occupancy, link capacity improvement, and vehicle characteristic affect network performance under a prevailing condition.