Abstract
The rapid increase of motorcycle ownership associated with inadequate public transport has largely contributed to increased traffic congestion, accidents and environmental pollution in Hanoi. A policy framework to improve public transport and control motorcycle ownership simultaneously has become necessary for solving the problems. Therefore, practitioners have shown interest in the household motorcycle ownership behavior and how households respond to transport policies. Objectives of this study are to develop dynamic discrete choice models expressing the ownership behavior and investigate household response to policy. First, a retrospective survey is conducted for collecting information of the household motorcycle transaction processes. Second, heterogeneity is analyzed using random coefficients logit model. State dependence is investigated using buy-smooth and lagged dependent variables. Finally, the results show the increases in number of workers or students, motorcycle price, income, and previous transactions significantly influence current transaction decisions. Sufficient high taxes imposed on motorcycle users could be effective in controlling the ownership.
