PREDICTION OF A SEQUENTIAL SHORT-TIME OD MODEL BASED ON PERSON TRIP DATA IN AN URBAN AREA

Abstract

In this paper, the structure of a time-of-day travel demand forecasting model system is discussed. A short-time Origin-Destination [OD] model is constructed to estimate traffic volume in each time class during a day. A short-time traffic assignment is also proposed considering some trips do not always arrive at a destination within the same time class and link into the next phase. Also, Sequential short-time modal split must consider traffic conditions of each time class. Therefore, joint modal split and assignment model is constructed. In these models, time distributions and trip-length are required. These models are analyzed considering differences in characteristics of trip purposes and personal attributes and estimated by model parameters from the Person trip survey data.