MODELLING TRAFFIC ACCIDENT OCCURRENCE ON INDONESIAN TOLL ROADS

Abstract

This paper presents traffic accident models of toll roads in the Greater Jakarta Area. The Negative Binomial modelling technique was used to model the frequency of accidents. Single vehicle multiple vehicle accidents were modelled separately and the results summed to provide an overall model. These models showed that the relationship between accidents and traffic flow can be described by U-shaped curves which were created using data from sets of dual-2, dual-3 and dual-4 toll roads. The dual-2 and dual-3 models were skewed to the right and the dual-4 model was skewed to the left indicating that high traffic flow conditions were associated with high numbers of accidents on dual-2 and dual-3 toll roads and low number of accidents on dual-4 toll roads. The modelling reveals that the dual-3 toll roads are the safest type in terms of accidents per kilometre.