Vehicle Type Choice, Usage, and CO₂ Emissions in Ho Chi Minh City: Analysis and Simulation Using a Discrete-Continuous Model

抄録

This paper presents an empirical study on vehicle type choice, usage, and CO₂ emissions in Ho Chi Minh City, using data of 1585 participants in a 2014 survey. A joint discrete-continuous model based on the copula approach is used to overcome selectivity bias in the data and to address the relationship between vehicle type choice (a discrete outcome) and usage (a continuous outcome) by specifying a joint distribution. The results show that the two choices are interdependent and probably impacted by socio-economic attributes rather than built environment attributes around the home location. In addition, the simulation describes a shift from motorcycles to cars, and an increase in usage, resulting in a 60% increase in CO₂ emissions/passenger/month over a 10-year period. Lastly, the study analyzes two interventions intended to decrease vehicle usage and CO₂ emissions, namely increasing operating costs and encouraging greater sharing of vehicles, which will be useful for policymaking.