日本の貨幣市場:現金通貨供給と信用拡張

抄録

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the structure of the Post-War Japanese money market with the sticky interest rates, and to estimate the influences, on the movements of money supply, of changes in cash currency brought about through the general government deficits and/or the net in-flow of foreign exchange accounts, and of the new issue of the government-bonds that is to be purchased by the private financial institutions such as commercial banks.
As a theoretical basis, an extended theory of "Credit-Expansion" is proposed, which describes the frame-work on the interdependency between credit-behavior of commercial banks and that of the public's liquidity preference by type. Credit behavior of commercial banks is assumed to be of a type of the credit-rationing, the actual basis of which is that the marginal internal rate of return on credit seems to be significantly higher than that of cost of accepting deposites, and that the deposite rates are legally held almost constant at the lower level, reflecting the coexistense of various size of banks in the Post-War Japanese financial markets with the sticky interest rates.
The empirical results are as follows: (i) The estimates for the parameters of equations for the public's liquidity preference by type seemed to be considerably plausible and also stable. (ii) The credit behavior of commercial banks appeared to have the structure of lag-distribution, (iii) The central bank's credit to commercial banks appears to change straight forward with bank-loans, and consequently (iv) An increase in holding of the government-bonds newly issued, by commercial banks, should lead to that of money supply through the gap between the speeds of adjustments of behavior of bank-loans and that of the public's behavior of liquidity preference by type.
This model has been established for the purpose of analysing the mechanism of interdependency between financial and real transactions in our country.