大インフレーション期における期待の形成

抄録

In this paper, we consider the formation of inflation expectations in Japan for the period, 1971Q2-77Q1. Utilizing a quarterly qualitative survey of about 6000 households, conducted by the Economic Planning Agency, we derive a quarterly series of expected rate of inflation by virtue of the modified version of Carlson=Parkin method. We also find that workers are more sensitive to price movements in their formation of expectations than farmers and self-supporting proprietors.
Using the derived series of expectations, we test several popular hypotheses of expectations formation including extrapolative, adaptive, weighted and rational expectations. The extrapolative scheme with quarterly trends is revealed to be the best description of the derived series. It is also seen that the contractive economic policy in 1974Q1 is a significant factor to explain the formation of inflation expectations.