マクロ計量モデルにおける女子労働力内生化の試み

抄録

The purpose of this paper is to explore into the behaviors of the demand and supply of labor in Japan with special emphasis on sex/employment status composition.
The model consists of thirty-five endogenous variables, which is classified into three blocks of labor demand, labor supply and wage determination. And in these blocks relevant variables are disaggregated by sex. In view of the increasing number of female labor force, disaggregation by sex seem to be crucial in grasping basic trends in Japan's labor market.
A test of the explanatory power of the model was performed by the final test for the period of 1975 QI-1978 QIII. Disaggregated model showed a significant improvement in explaining the actual movement of the market as compared to some of the aggregate labor market model.
Further, two simulations were performed by shocking the model by changing two of the major exogenous variables respectively. That is (1) one per cent increase in CPI from actual level and (2) one per cent increase in GDP. From the above simulations it was found that demand for male/female employment, labor supply of housewives, and wage rate change interact in a most interdependent way which could lead to large forecasting errors when approached by an aggregate model.