Risk Analysis Regarding School Safety:

Focusing on the Actual and Perceived Incidence of Accidents

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to critically examine policies on school safety using the concepts and methodologies of risk, which give us perspectives for analysis based on actual and perceived incidence rates.

In recent years, keeping children safe from dangerous strangers or from homicides has become a major issue in Japan, and much manpower, materials and monetary resources have come to be spent on protecting children. At times, school safety seems to have become equivalent to the prevention of harm from strangers. But is it only damage from strangers that children suffer at school? Though it is clear that many accidents take place in daily school life, few attempts have so far been made on what kind of accidents occur and how often. To answer this question we focus attention on the concepts and methodologies of risk, giving us a clear and broad perspective for analyzing accidents.

First, we begin by considering a scientific methodology that is characterized by calculating the incidence rates of accidents and comparing them to one another. Counting cases of death in schools for a period of 25 years, we found that the probability of murder by a stranger is the least likely of all types of accidents. On the other hand, traffic accidents and deaths during swimming and playing judo are the most common. It is clear that it would be possible to protect more children more effectively by focusing safety resources into those activities.

Secondly, we discuss the risks from a sociological point of view that deals with the aspects of perception. Some events are defined as risky and people feel fear, driving them to take preventive measures against such risks. Others are not defined as risky and people remain indifferent to them, even though they cause many more deaths. We can call this the social construction of risk. Policies on school safety have been made in a way that is removed from the actual incidence rates of accidents. Decision-making in risk depends on our perception of risk.

In comparison with environmental risks, which sociologists often focus on, risks at school are characterized by the involvement of all agents including the nation, local governments, schools, parents and communities. This is because the knowledge and decision-making tools are accessible to all agents. In addition, because modern society expects adults to protect children at all times, adults are taking responsibility for risk management in school life. This makes it easy to trigger fears of risks throughout society.

Our suggestion is that evidence from cases of death must be referred to during the initial phase of the process of amplification of fear. Before the amplification of the willingness to manage the risk, educational administrators who have power to make decisions should decide the direction of policy based on evidence.

We need to carefully watch the actual rates of accidents. This is the best way to defend children effectively with limited resources.