This paper describes a trajectory prediction model for future Air Traffic Management (ATM). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has created the global ATM operational concept scoping to 2025. Trajectory-based operation is introduced in the concept. The future vision of CARATS, NextGen and SESAR have progressed it. Electronic Navigation Research Institute (ENRI) has defined trajectory management as a core subject in its future research vision. A trajectory prediction system is necessary for trajectory management. ENRI has developed a trajectory prediction model.
This paper explained the trajectory prediction model as a means to predict and estimate the trajectory of an aircraft, a comparison of estimated trajectory with actual trajectory, and a simulation as time based operation for arrival traffic. The model predicts trajectories based on aircraft performance, airline operation, the navigation database, and weather forecasts. In order to attain the required accuracy, uncertainty factor analysis based on the actual flight operation environment is important. Trajectories predicted using the model are compared with actual operation data. Ground speed estimation is important for fix crossing time prediction. Error factors from the aircraft speed model and error factors from weather forecasts were analyzed for ground speed estimation. Analysis of weather forecasts shows good prediction of numerical prediction of Japan Metrological Agency. Improved aircraft speed model based on actual operation is proposed for good time prediction. Evaluation with the model shows good prediction performance in cruise phase and climb phase. Acquisition of speed intent of aircraft is important to predict trajectories. Arrival traffic simulation with the trajectory model shows fuel saving of speed control compared with pass extension.
