抄録
Trajectory-based operations (TBO) includes the prediction of air traffic demand to allow the planning of
measures to balance demand and capacity. Long-term airport traffic demand forecasting and monitoring is a
part of this. Ideally, forecasting should use a full set of historical data as a baseline, but such data are not always
available. This report presents a simple method to forecast annual airport traffic demand and daily traffic flux from limited historical flight data and an existing air traffic growth forecast model. The historical flight data comprises air traffic samples (scenarios) for one or more representative days in a baseline year that include departure and arrival times and origin and destination airport. To these we apply a model of traffic growth factors to generate forecast traffic demand scenarios for a target year, adding growth traffic to the baseline using a random ‘copyand-shift’ process to preserve the daily time-varying characteristics of traffic flows. Annual airport movements and hourly traffic flux are then estimated from the traffic demand scenarios.
We demonstrate the method by applying it traffic scenarios for 2013 to forecast airport demand at the eight
busiest airports in the Fukuoka Flight Information Region (FIR) for the year 2030. We also show a correction for
visual flight rules (VFR) traffic data that was ‘missing’ from our original baseline data.
