Prediction of Spread of Damage Due to Disasters

Focused on Spread of Infectious Disease

Abstract

We consider how soon the final condition of a disaster can be predicted while the disaster is ongoing. Assuming stages when the damage of a disaster increasing, appropriate prediction methodologies are introduced. In the midst of a disaster, predicting when the peak will be over, which is one of the most crucial issues, after the peak has occurred is meaningless. To circumvent such a condition, a variety of methods that can predict the final condition early are demonstrated. In this paper, the spread of infectious disease is mainly dealt with, and effective prediction methods at an early stage and the predicted results are discussed.